Comments on Maison Fleury: Economics and Optimism

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2009-03-23T04:49:00.000-07:00

Since I don't know anyone in the list you provided...

2008-02-11T14:44:00.000-08:00

Since I don't know anyone in the list you provided, it didn't really impress me :)

Nah... 3 years working together, I KNOW you're alr...

2008-02-11T11:50:00.000-08:00

Nah... 3 years working together, I KNOW you're already impressed with me. Its your readers, I was trying to impress. ;-)

Roy, that is a lot of name dropping. You think th...

2008-02-11T11:27:00.000-08:00

Roy,

that is a lot of name dropping. You think that impresses me?

Marc, surely you aren't agreeing with Mankiw... a ...

2008-02-11T09:48:00.000-08:00

Marc, surely you aren't agreeing with Mankiw... a devotee of Supply-Side Economics under the Reagan Administration.

Personally, I agree with SS-Econ and its basis in the Laffer Curve. I don't expect my Krugman-reading Americans to agree however. ;-)

And for more joy, pick up the cover story of Busin...

2008-02-05T16:59:00.000-08:00

And for more joy, pick up the cover story of BusinessWeek: Housing Meltdown: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_06/b4070040767516.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily

Here is an excerpt:
For another bearish view, there's what economists refer to as the Mankiw paper. In 1989, long before working in the White House as chief economic adviser or writing his best-selling textbook, Principles of Economics, Harvard University economist N. Gregory Mankiw co-wrote a paper that was startlingly negative on housing. He and David N. Weil predicted that home prices would decline by 47% after inflation over the next 20 years, based on a shrinking pool of potential first-time buyers and an expectation that baby boomers as a group would spend less on housing as they grew older.

It could be that Mankiw and Weil were not so much wrong as premature. Although boomers have thwarted expectations by adding on rooms and second homes as they age, they won't thwart nature. "At some point, death or illness will cause baby boomers' houses to come onto the market," observed John Krainer, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, in an in-house publication in 2005. When the huge boomer generation shuffles off, the nation's housing needs will wane. That will create an oversupply unless builders see it coming and reduce construction. Judging from the recent overbuilding binge, though, their forecasting abilities leave a lot to be desired.

PCleddy, Fascinating indeed. I just bought the boo...

2008-02-05T08:53:00.000-08:00

PCleddy,

Fascinating indeed. I just bought the book. Will read it.

I was always puzzled by the concept of "money". That debt creates money is a well known phenomena which in an on itself is not evil. In fact it permits one to build a business by borrowing from his/hers future earnings WHICH IS A GOOD THING as it optimizes capitalism: you don't need all the capital up front but can borrow from your future success. The barrier to entry to capital and therefore further growth are lowered through debt. The capital is not created out of thin air, say like printing money, it is to be repaid from the future. I say it is a pretty nifty concept. It boils down to the concept of risk and how much of that future capital is going to disappear by default of the borrowers. But that can be priced in. With syndication it becomes fuzzy as the banks sell their debt and get the cash back which they immediately reloan as they work around their limits of what they can loan with what cash they have on their books. This way, debt multiplies without any capital backing and becomes the fiat money this guy talks about.

But the example of the civil war and Hitler's germany are interesting. Inject money and you will see inflation if demand outstrips supply. This is particularly true when money was injected in "troops" but the production infrastructure was destroyed in the US and germany. If there are 10 shoes in circulation, 2k produced each month and more money to buy them you arrive at that "$5000" shoe example the book talks about. But this is a due to LACK OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY. This is not the case today. A stimulus package of 150B like what is voted now, with 300 per household WILL result in phone purchases, food purchases and TV purchases. The production is elastic, someone WILL keep the prices in check. Add to that contraction of debt, apply the above paragraph and you have a deleveraging of the money supply that is going to further apply deflationary pressure.

I will read the book but I believe that the statement "running the money presses ALWAYS results in inflation" while historically true may be due to the fact that in the past supply was outstripped by demand, which may not be the case anymore: demand CAN AND WILL follow, debt money supply WILL decrease which all amounts to deflationary pressures. The FED MAY be right to focus on the economy growth and consumption.

curious what you think of this?http://www.pbxnw.co...

2008-02-04T22:16:00.000-08:00

curious what you think of this?

http://www.pbxnw.com/~paul/pdfs/cfji_chap8.pdf

i am reading through it, fascinated, but skeptical that i might be missing some piece of the puzzle

I hear you and you are probably right. I do howev...

2008-02-04T15:57:00.000-08:00

I hear you and you are probably right. I do however believe that

1/ The FED is independent of political power. The Greenspan book was great that way when he explained how Carter committed political suicide by doing the right economic thing and fighting inflation. He had no choice really.

2/ Inflation of everything will include housing. Housing prices are stretching the current debt limits (hence the subprime) so the actual prices (inflation adjusted) have to come down no matter what.

3/ Inflation will just eat at debt. Screwing the financial system by letting inflation run out of control is not going to help anyone no? People wont invest in the US, the dollar will sink further, all credibility for the US system will be gone.

I was reading an interesting article about Davos and how some non-US were chuckling at the new found humility of the US policymakers that used to run around giving lessons to the rest of the world. Apparently there were still some doing that and that elicited a few laughs.

I agree with you Marc, that the actual price has a...

2008-02-04T15:18:00.000-08:00

I agree with you Marc, that the actual price has a limit, unless wages go up with inflation. I am arguing pessimistically that human nature will win out over rationality, and that the government, in order to appease the majority who are in debt up to their eyeballs, will continue to print money in order to raise inflation. Inflation is the friend of the debtor.

I'll invoke Godwin on myself now, and just mention that Hitler deliberately inflated the Mark to pay off WWI reparation debt. It killed German businesses and anyone with savings in the short term (which also served his purposes, but it helped the German economy as a whole.)

I'm not saying Bush is Hitler, just that I believe the temptation to print money to bail out debt will be too great to resist.

Yeah, the part where housing was left out of Core ...

2008-02-04T13:26:00.000-08:00

Yeah, the part where housing was left out of Core Inflation always puzzled me. How is this not a inflating item? then of course it hit me that for most people that have houses, they rise with the floating tide and so they can hop from one house to the other, so really the ones that are feeling the initial pinch are those that don't have a house, young couples and the like. But to them, clearly this is the BIGGEST component of inflation. I remember being PRICED OUT OF THE RENTAL market in Silicon Valley and that is when I decided to come back to ATL. I very simply could NOT afford even the rent, much less the house.

I hear you guys on inflation eating away at the nominal price but not sure I buy it. Inflation is equivalent to the price going down, in term of purchasing power and "value" of your house, it is going down. The fact that people hang onto a nominal price is a superfluous approach to the problem.

I do believe that the price will go down. They are going down, they will continue to go down if we look at inventory and believe in supply/demand equilibrium. Of course these equilibriums are reached in time and right now the gap between ask and close is widening which slows down the volume. THis is a market, as many have noted that is encumbered by ego and runs deep in the psyche. Even yesterday I heard a good friend of mine say "well this street is worth 600, this one 800, but *mine* (emphasis) on mine, is worth 1M when the data I have on the sold properties in his street say exactly the opposite. That will further delay the speed at which stuff gets re-evaluated and inflation may well build 20% correction, over 4-5 years at 4% annual pace, but the economic sense would say "SELL NOW" and enjoy the time value of money. Psychology, schmicology.

The final argument for a price going down (which we are observing) is that I believe, but haven't looked at the numbers yet, that we may be at the limit of what housing can cost. I mean take an average salary, 100k. I don't mean that is average, that can be quite high, I am just using the number to make a point. Let's say that 1/3 of after tax is used to finance the home at most that 25k/year. At 5% interest (low) that is a 500k loan. The point I am making is that THERE IS A LIMIT TO WHAT PEOPLE CAN PAY FOR ON CREDIT. For the rest it is capital extensive. If you have the capital it doesn't apply of course. But with the credit going down and THE DEMOGRAPHICS going down the aggregate demand (people x money) is going down in a square fashion: less people with less money. The actual price of a house has a limit.

Bingo! Rob LanphierInflation has been the endgame ...

2008-02-03T20:01:00.000-08:00

Bingo! Rob Lanphier

Inflation has been the endgame strategy since LTCM. Inflation was to finance the war on terror, (if you didn't see it that's because you didn't look at housing or oil prices -- or other "volatiles" like food that were dropped from the CI long ago) and inflation will bail out the lenders and the housing speculators. And there were a lot of secretaries and soccer moms speculating. I happen to know a physician's assistant who quit her job, dropped out of nursing school, and lived the high life off of the gift of one rental from her parents, became a realtor, increased her holdings to three rentals and a place in a good school district for her and her newlywed husband. I feel sorry for her now.

It's people like her that the government are going to bail out, because they want her vote.

And it's people like me who didn't get into the housing market in 2004 because it looked risky, watched it inflate beyond our ability to enter by 2006, enduring told-you-sos while we watched the purchasing power of our savings reduce by half, and now feel an ominous sinking knowing that the masses of people who bought at 25% above value and expected another 25% return, won't be disappointed, and it'll be the lunch money, retirement money, and savings of the rest of us that will have to pay for it.

The value of housing won't go down, and the value of the dollar won't go up.

Great post! I wonder if inflation may end up bein...

2008-02-03T13:32:00.000-08:00

Great post! I wonder if inflation may end up being a corrective force for the housing bubble. It seems people get pretty irrational about selling a house below the price they paid for it (hence why the housing slump in Boston lasted so long in the 1980s, from what I understand). An odd positive effect of inflation would be to allow for a price correction in the housing market without the prices literally decreasing. That would be another argument for the Fed not worrying so much about a brief period of inflation.

Baby boom and bust - Economisthttp://www.economist...

2008-02-03T06:15:00.000-08:00

Baby boom and bust - Economist
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10534992

"Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic Transition "
(it's free!)
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/2104878056-23815571/content~content=a789053981~db=all~jumptype=rss?bios=true

OK, put your $10 on the table and we'll look up in...

2008-02-02T16:22:00.000-08:00

OK, put your $10 on the table and we'll look up in six months.

Great posts on tech. I always read'em.

Ok, that's a fun game.Sell gold, buy dollar, neutr...

2008-02-02T14:37:00.000-08:00

Ok, that's a fun game.

Sell gold, buy dollar, neutral on goog, appl. Housing market will go down slowly but steadily over the next 5 years. Buy financials in 4 mo. Buy green, short solar for the next 6 mo then buy.

Whoops: Didn't finish.Nice post. Nice to see that ...

2008-02-02T12:41:00.000-08:00

Whoops: Didn't finish.
Nice post. Nice to see that you're folowing the markets.
My thoughts: Buy gold(or silver). Buy the dollar, it'll rally. Short google short term or buy puts (400? 350?) Buy calls on Apple.
Housing market will bounce when Fed rates hit 1.5, 2.0. But, then it'll go off deep end. Sell and buy in 6-9 months and then hang tight. Financials? Holy moly, shortshortshort. Go green. Buy calls on solar.

Enough blather. Let's prognoticate:

2008-02-02T12:35:00.000-08:00

Enough blather. Let's prognoticate:

Good point on fiscal policy, although one has to q...

2008-02-02T10:58:00.000-08:00

Good point on fiscal policy, although one has to question whether a $300 check per household is a "stimulus plan". To me it sounds like more Chinese goods being purchased.

More power to Ann (Buffet,Soros)... what do you think the likelihood is to see them waiting in line for an MRI under a socialized medicine plan? ;-)

Comments on Maison Fleury: Economics and Optimism

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And for more joy, pick up the cover story of Busin...

PCleddy, Fascinating indeed. I just bought the boo...

curious what you think of this?http://www.pbxnw.co...

I hear you and you are probably right. I do howev...

I agree with you Marc, that the actual price has a...

Yeah, the part where housing was left out of Core ...

Bingo! Rob LanphierInflation has been the endgame ...

Great post! I wonder if inflation may end up bein...

Baby boom and bust - Economisthttp://www.economist...

OK, put your $10 on the table and we'll look up in...

Ok, that's a fun game.Sell gold, buy dollar, neutr...

Whoops: Didn't finish.Nice post. Nice to see that ...

Enough blather. Let's prognoticate:

Good point on fiscal policy, although one has to q...

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